Big Shifts in Global Power: What Donald Trump and Putin Are Doing to the West

As the global balance of power shifts, Europe's security dilemma deepens. What does history teach us about navigating such turning points?

Introduction: The Cycle of Power

Throughout history, dominant powers have risen and fallen — from the Roman Empire to British colonial rule. The 20th century ushered in a new leader: the United States, which emerged from World War II as the guardian of Western democracy. But in 2025, that postwar order is being questioned like never before — not by an external rival, but from within.

At the center of this disruption are U.S. President Donald Trump, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, a fractured NATO, and an increasingly anxious Europe.

A Turning Point in Western Security

After World War II, the U.S. committed itself to global leadership. Under the Truman Doctrine (1947) and through the creation of NATO in 1949, it established itself as the guarantor of European security. For nearly 80 years, Article 5 of NATO — the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all — served as the bedrock of peace on the continent.

But now, President Trump has openly challenged that principle.

In recent remarks, he warned that NATO members who fail to meet defense spending targets may not be defended by the U.S. His administration has criticized Europe as being overly reliant on American military support, with Vice President J.D. Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth allegedly expressing disdain for "bailing Europe out again" in leaked communications.

These are not just political soundbites — they are signals of a fundamental shift in how the U.S. sees its role in the world.

Europe's Growing Vulnerability

Europe, long accustomed to U.S. protection, now finds itself in a strategic dilemma. Its military capacity has declined dramatically since the Cold War — for example, UK defense spending has fallen by nearly 70% since the early 1990s. Recruitment across Western militaries is also in decline.

While some countries in Eastern Europe are ramping up defense, others — particularly in Southern and Western Europe — lag behind. Germany’s incoming chancellor has called for a “Europeanization” of NATO, suggesting Europe must prepare to defend itself with or without the United States.

But building the necessary strategic infrastructure — satellites, missile defense systems, surveillance — could take 3 to 5 years, according to leading historians and defense analysts.

Putin’s Strategic Advantage

As the West argues over its future, Vladimir Putin has capitalized on the cracks. His objectives are clear:

• Weaken NATO

• Destabilize democratic institutions

• Reduce U.S. military presence in Europe

After a tense March 2025 meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Kremlin stated: “The fragmentation of the West has begun.”

By signaling that Ukraine would never join NATO and suggesting territorial concessions to Russia, Trump appeared to hand Putin a diplomatic victory — without securing any clear return.

To many observers, this confirms what Russia has long aimed for: a retreating United States and a divided Europe.

What History Teaches Us About Decline

Historian Arnold Toynbee famously argued that great powers don’t collapse from external attack alone — they crumble when they fail to adapt. The West, once united around shared ideals of democracy and multilateralism, now finds itself politically polarized and ideologically fragmented.

The rules-based international order, built to ensure sovereignty and cooperation, is being replaced by a dangerous flirtation with “spheres of influence” — where larger powers dominate weaker ones, echoing pre-WWII geopolitics.

From U.S. Leadership to European Self-Reliance?

Is Europe ready to defend itself without America?

That’s the question now facing EU policymakers. Building a European defense industrial base, fostering unity among member states, and modernizing military logistics are urgent priorities. However, long-standing divisions — between East and West, between NATO optimists and skeptics — still hamper progress.

Chatham House and RUSI analysts argue this is no longer a debate about if Europe should act, but how fast it must act.

Conclusion: A Redefining Moment for the West

The security umbrella that has protected Europe for nearly a century is no longer guaranteed. Donald Trump and Putin embody two sides of a changing world order — Trump’s transactional approach to alliances and Putin’s assertive expansionism — while Europe’s delayed defense investments have together triggered the most serious crisis for Western security since World War II.

But in this moment of uncertainty lies opportunity — for Europe to rediscover its strategic purpose, for the global order to evolve, and for democratic nations to reassess what unity truly means. If history teaches us anything, it’s that order must be rebuilt — deliberately, cooperatively, and urgently.