Geopolitical and Regional Impact of Nepal's Monarchy and Hindu State Movements on India

Nepal's ongoing socio-political turmoil — marked by rising calls to reinstate the monarchy and declare the nation a Hindu state — is not an isolated national issue. It holds significant geopolitical implications, particularly for India, given the two countries’ shared history, open borders, cultural ties, and strategic interests.

1. Strategic Concerns and Border Security

India and Nepal share a 1,770 km-long open and porous border, with people moving freely for trade, work, and religious travel. Political instability in Nepal creates security concerns for India in several ways:

• Cross-border movement of extremists or anti-India elements becomes more likely in times of weak governance.

• A power vacuum or internal unrest in Nepal can be exploited by external actors (notably China) to extend influence in the region, pressuring India’s northern borders.

• Protests and nationalistic sentiments can trigger anti-India rhetoric, especially if India is perceived as favoring the secular democratic order over monarchy or vice versa.

2. India’s Historical Role and the “Trust Deficit”

India has traditionally maintained strong ties with Nepal’s monarchy, especially during the Cold War era. However, India's overt support for the People's Movement of 2006, which led to the downfall of the monarchy, created a sense among royalists and traditionalists in Nepal that India backed the shift toward secular republicanism.

If the pro-monarchy movement gains traction and royal forces become politically influential again, India may face a shift in diplomatic tone. Royalists may seek to realign more with Hindu nationalist sentiments but also may criticize India for its past support of the republic — creating a dilemma in New Delhi’s Nepal policy.

3. Rise of Hindu Nationalism and Regional Echoes

India itself has witnessed a surge in Hindu nationalist discourse in recent years. The demand to declare Nepal a Hindu state resonates with certain political groups in India, who see this as a natural cultural and civilizational alignment.

This could:

• Embolden right-wing groups in India to push for stronger pan-Hindu cultural unity.

• Lead to cross-border ideological collaborations, including religious pilgrimages, events, or political symbolism around figures like King Prithvi Narayan Shah.

• However, it could also complicate India’s secular democratic image in the region, especially with its Muslim and Christian neighbors like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

4. China’s Opportunistic Engagement

If India appears divided or uncertain in its approach to Nepal’s changing political dynamics, China is likely to capitalize. Over the last decade, China has increased its footprint in Nepal through infrastructure, investment, and diplomatic support for stability.

• China has often positioned itself as a neutral power, not favoring monarchy or republic but backing political stability.

• A weakened or distracted Nepal may invite deeper Chinese investment, possibly including influence over Himalayan infrastructure and cross-border water resources — both of which are crucial to India.

5. Religious and Cultural Impact

India and Nepal share deep-rooted Hindu and Buddhist religious ties. The demand to restore Nepal as a Hindu Rashtra could have both positive cultural resonance and sensitive diplomatic repercussions:

• Pilgrimage routes (like Janakpur, Pashupatinath, and Muktinath) could become more prominent in bilateral religious diplomacy.

• However, such religious framing of Nepal’s statehood may alienate minority groups, both in Nepal and India, leading to tensions over inclusivity and pluralism.

6. Economic and Migration Impacts

Nepal is highly dependent on remittances, and a large number of Nepalis work in India. Political instability and civil unrest may:

• Increase migration to Indian cities, especially bordering states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, and West Bengal.

• Affect bilateral trade, especially as Nepal's economic challenges worsen. India is Nepal’s largest trading partner, and instability could disrupt supply chains and border commerce.

Conclusion: A Complex Balancing Act for India

The ongoing developments in Nepal present both opportunity and risk for India. While cultural and religious commonalities may offer a chance to strengthen ties with a section of Nepali society, India must tread carefully to avoid being seen as interfering in Nepal’s internal affairs. The key challenges for India will be:

• Maintaining a non-partisan diplomatic stance.

• Supporting political stability and inclusive governance in Nepal.

• Guarding against Chinese influence expansion.

• Preparing for humanitarian and security implications if instability escalates.

India’s best bet lies in quiet diplomacy, regional cooperation, and strengthening people-to-people ties while respecting Nepal’s sovereign choices.