The Indus Water Treaty: A Comprehensive Overview

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT), signed between India and Pakistan in 1960, is one of the most significant international agreements between the two nations. The treaty governs the sharing of water from the Indus River and its tributaries, a vital resource for both countries, especially in light of their agricultural economies and growing populations. The treaty’s historical context, importance, and potential ramifications—especially in the wake of the recent Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025—make it a crucial point of discussion.

Source : India Today Group

Historical Context and the Genesis of the Treaty

The roots of the Indus Water Treaty trace back to the partition of British India in 1947, which divided the vast Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. One of the most significant challenges arising from this partition was the sharing of river waters, particularly those of the Indus River Basin, which spans both India and Pakistan.

At the time of partition, the Indus River System (comprising the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers) was crucial to the livelihoods of millions of people, especially in Punjab, an agriculturally rich region. The partition placed the majority of the Indus Basin in Pakistan, but India retained control over the upper reaches of the Indus and its tributaries.

Initially, there was no formal agreement regarding water distribution, leading to tensions and disputes. This escalated when India diverted water from the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) for irrigation purposes in the 1940s and 1950s, cutting off Pakistan's access to these crucial resources. Pakistan, which heavily relied on these rivers for irrigation, was deeply concerned about its agricultural future.

The situation was further complicated by the ongoing hostilities between India and Pakistan, including the 1947-48 war over Kashmir. The Indus Basin, which flowed through both countries, became a flashpoint for conflict, with both sides seeking control over the river system.

The Role of the World Bank and the Signing of the Treaty

During the British Raj, a large canal system was built in the Indus River Valley of South Punjab, which greatly benefited the region, eventually making it a major agricultural area in South Asia.

When India and Pakistan were partitioned, the eastern part of Punjab went to India, while the western part became part of Pakistan. Along with the partition of Punjab, the Indus River Valley and its extensive canals were also divided. However, Pakistan became fully dependent on India for water flowing through these regions.

To maintain the flow of water, a compromise was made between the chief engineers of the eastern and western Punjab on December 20, 1947, to share the water resources. According to this agreement, India was supposed to continue providing water to Pakistan until March 31, 1948.

However, when this agreement was not honored after April 1, 1948, India cut off water to two major canals, leading to severe conditions for 17 lakh acres of land in Pakistani Punjab. Several reasons were attributed to this move, one of which was India's attempt to exert pressure on Pakistan regarding the Kashmir issue.

After further negotiations, India agreed to resume the water supply.

In 1951, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru invited former Tennessee Valley Authority head David Lilienthal to India, who also visited Pakistan. After returning to the United States, Lilienthal wrote an article on the Indus River Valley water dispute.

The article caught the attention of David Black, head of the World Bank, who reached out to the leaders of India and Pakistan. This sparked a series of discussions between both nations, which lasted for nearly a decade.

The result was the Indus Water Treaty, which was signed on September 19, 1960, by then-Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan, with the World Bank playing a significant role in facilitating the talks. The treaty was designed to allocate the waters of the Indus Basin between the two countries in a fair and equitable manner, with the long-term goal of preventing further conflicts over water resources.

Provisions of the Treaty

Under the Indus Water Treaty, the river system was divided into two sections: the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab).

• Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej): These rivers were allocated to India, which was granted unrestricted rights to use their waters. India could utilize the water from these rivers for agricultural, industrial, and domestic purposes, although some restrictions were imposed on building large-scale storage projects without Pakistan’s consent.

• Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab): Pakistan was granted exclusive rights to the water of these rivers, which were crucial for its agricultural sector. India, however, was allowed to use the water of these rivers for limited purposes, such as irrigation for a few regions in its Jammu and Kashmir state, and for generating hydroelectric power.

The treaty also established the Indus Commission, a body of experts from both countries responsible for monitoring the implementation of the treaty, resolving any disputes, and facilitating technical exchanges related to water use. The commission serves as a key mechanism for dialogue and conflict resolution. It also includes a provision to seek the assistance of neutral experts or to approach the Court of Arbitration for any disputed issues.

Importance of the Treaty for Pakistan

For Pakistan, the Indus Water Treaty is of critical importance. The country relies heavily on the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers for its agricultural economy, which is a key driver of its GDP and livelihoods. Agriculture accounts for a significant portion of Pakistan’s economy, and the majority of the country’s irrigated farmland depends on the water from these rivers.

Pakistan also faces considerable challenges related to water scarcity, and the Indus River is the country’s lifeline, providing around 90% of its irrigation needs. The treaty has, thus, helped Pakistan secure its water supply from India’s control over the eastern rivers, ensuring stability in its agricultural production.

Additionally, the treaty provides Pakistan with a mechanism for dispute resolution, which has helped prevent major water-related conflicts. The involvement of the World Bank as a neutral party also provides Pakistan with a level of international legitimacy, making it easier to address concerns with India.

Impact of Suspending the Treaty

India’s recent suspension of the Indus Water Treaty after the Pahalgam attack in April 2025—an act of terrorism in which 26 people were killed—could have significant repercussions for both countries. If India follows through with the suspension, it could exacerbate tensions between the two countries, already strained due to ongoing cross-border terrorism issues, particularly in Kashmir.

• Impact on India: For India, suspending the treaty could be a symbolic move, demonstrating a firm stance against Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism. However, it could also have negative consequences, especially in the context of the agricultural sector in India’s northern regions, which depend on the waters of the Indus and its tributaries for irrigation.

• Impact on Pakistan: For Pakistan, the suspension of the treaty could lead to severe water shortages, affecting agriculture, food production, and economic stability. If India cuts off the flow of water from the eastern rivers to Pakistan, it could create a humanitarian crisis in the country, leading to increased poverty, food insecurity, and potential unrest.

Moreover, if the suspension continues, it could escalate into a larger geopolitical conflict, especially given the strategic and sensitive nature of water resources in the region.

Can India Stop the Flow of the Chenab and Jhelum Rivers? Is that feasible Geographically & Technologically?

Currently, stopping the flow of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers from the Indian side is highly unlikely due to significant geographic, hydrological, and technological challenges, coupled with international treaties. However, let's explore this in more detail:

Geographic and Hydrological Factors:

1. Source and Flow Path:

   • Both the Chenab and Jhelum rivers originate from the Himalayas and flow through India before entering Pakistan. The geographical conditions of these rivers, including their source in the higher altitudes and the vast catchment areas, make it extremely difficult to control or stop their natural flow.

   • The Chenab flows primarily through Jammu and Kashmir and enters Pakistan after passing through India. Similarly, the Jhelum originates from Verinag in Jammu and Kashmir and flows through India before entering Pakistan. Both are large rivers with substantial water flow, particularly during the monsoon season, and stopping or diverting them entirely would require monumental interventions.

2. Water Volume and Continuous Flow:

   • Both rivers carry a massive volume of water. Even if India attempts to divert or stop a portion of the flow, the vast natural reserves of water fed by glaciers, snowmelt, and rainfall would continue to feed the rivers.

   • The hydrological cycle — where rain, snowmelt, and underground water contribute to the river's flow — ensures a continuous supply of water. Technological solutions can regulate but not fully stop the natural flow of these rivers.

Technological and Engineering Challenges:

1. Massive Infrastructure Required:

   • To stop the flow of the Chenab and Jhelum completely, India would need to construct an extraordinarily complex system of dams, canals, and reservoirs, along with extensive water diversion projects. The scale of engineering required to divert all of this water is beyond the current capabilities of existing infrastructure.

   • While India has already constructed various hydroelectric dams and water storage projects along these rivers (like the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab), these are primarily designed for water regulation, electricity generation, and irrigation, not to completely block or stop the flow of the rivers.

2. Water Regulation Projects:

   • India has developed several hydroelectric projects on the Chenab and Jhelum, such as the Baglihar Dam (Chenab) and Salal Dam (Chenab), which help regulate water flow. These projects control water levels to prevent flooding, aid irrigation, and produce hydroelectric power.

   • However, these dams do not stop the flow of the rivers but only regulate and manage it to ensure efficient use of water resources. To fully stop or control the flow would require an unprecedented amount of engineering and massive infrastructure that doesn’t currently exist.

3. Challenges of Large-Scale Water Diverting:

   • Channeling the river water through alternate routes or constructing a massive system of tunnels, canals, and other diversion measures is technically challenging. India would have to consider the hydrology of the entire region: including rainfall patterns, snowmelt from glaciers, and underground water flow.

   • Such projects would require enormous financial investments, with no guarantee of success. The scale of infrastructure and technical expertise required would make it difficult to achieve in the near future.

The Role of China and the International Community

While the Indus Water Treaty is primarily a bilateral agreement between India and Pakistan, the international community—including China—could play a role in mediating or influencing the situation. China has significant strategic interests in the region, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative, which passes through Pakistan. China also shares a border with Pakistan and has deep military and economic ties with Islamabad.

However, any intervention by China would likely be motivated by its geopolitical interests in the region, which include maintaining stability in Pakistan and securing its infrastructure investments. The involvement of international powers, such as the United States or the United Nations, may also increase as tensions rise, particularly due to the strategic importance of the region for global peace and stability.

Conclusion

The Indus Water Treaty remains a vital agreement between India and Pakistan, with profound implications for both countries' security, agriculture, and economies. The recent suspension of the treaty by India, in the wake of the Pahalgam attack, underscores the fragile nature of peace in the region. While the treaty has successfully managed to avoid major conflicts over water in the past, its suspension could escalate tensions and result in further instability. The involvement of global powers, including China, may be crucial in ensuring that the situation does not spiral out of control and that the critical water resources of the Indus Basin are managed cooperatively.